Can You Predict Which Super Bowl Commercial Will Be Most Popular? | Barrett Media (2024)

What gives the Super Bowl its ginormous appeal are the elements that extend beyond the football game, which of course, itself has enormous appeal.

The half-time entertainment mainly was college marching bands during the first ten Super Bowls. My father took me to Super Bowl X at the Orange Bowl in 1976, where “Up with People” was the half-time entertainment.

One of the highlights of my life was nine years later when my radio career made it possible for me to obtain tickets (thanks to the Green Bay Packers) to Super Bowl XIX (the Montana vs. Marino Super Bowl). The Air Force provided half-time entertainment that year.

In 1991, New Kids on the Block started the contemporary music trend. It reached stratospheric levels when Michael Jackson performed in 1993. In the 30 years since then, it’s been a who’s who of music’s biggest stars.

Since its inception in 1967, the Super Bowl has generated large audiences. With rare exceptions, it is the most-watched show of the year.

The Super Bowl has also long been a prime showcase for products and services to advertise. Within the first ten years of the Super Bowl, advertisers used it to unveil their new commercials with high-budget productions. One of the first I recall is Xerox’s “Monk” spot.

In 1979 a couple of highly memorable and two of the all-time great commercials debuted in the Super Bowl, including Budweiser’s, Here Comes the King, and especially co*ke’s “Hey Kid Catch,” featuring ‘Mean’ Joe Green.

However, the modern era of Super Bowl high-stakes advertising sweepstakes began with Apple’s “1984” spot for its new Macintosh computer. The spot, produced by Ridley Scott, is still widely regarded as the best Super Bowl commercial ever. It ran on television only once during the 1984 Super Bowl. Every producer aims to create the buzz the 1984 sport did.

Since then, the commercial breaks, when people usually socialized, refilled their food platters, or used the facilities, became an essential part of the Super Bowl entertainment experience – especially for non-football fans or fans whose teams aren’t in the “Big Game.”

In 1989, USA Today introduced the Ad-Meter. During the 1988 election, Gannett, owner of USA Today, employed “dial technology” to measure real-time debate responses. During debates, panelists were assembled and given a handheld device with a dial. They turned it further to the right, the more they liked what they heard/saw, and the left, the less they liked it.

USA Today decided to try using the dials to measure commercials during the 1989 Super Bowl with a total of 300 panelists at various locations across the country.

By the 25th anniversary of the ad-meter measurement moved online. Over (approximately) the past ten years, anybody can rate most of the commercials before the game online. While the research is no longer pure research, the sheer number of participants does make it interesting.

Here’s a list of the winner of USA Today’s Super Bowl Ad-Meter every year from 1989 through last year, according to participants who registered and rated every single Super Bowl commercial that’s won.

1989: American Express, Saturday Night Live – Dana Carvey and Jon Lovitz

1990: Nike, Announcers and athletes – HoF announcers Don Cherry & Pat Summerall

1991: Diet Pepsi, New jingle spreads around the world – Ray Charles

1992: Nike, Michael Jordan and Bugs Bunny – Air Jordan

1993: McDonald’s, Michael Jordan vs. Larry Bird

1994: Pepsi, chimp experiment goes awry

1995: Pepsi, Boy gets sucked into Pepsi bottle

1996: Pepsi, co*ke driver nabs Pepsi – co*ke guy caught on camera (Your cheatin’ heart)

1996: Pepsi, Bears dance to Village People tune

1998: Pepsi, Flying geese – Troy Hartman

1999: Budweiser, Dalmatians get different jobs – separated at birth

2000: Budweiser, Rex the dog recalls worst day

2001: Bud Light, Cedric the Entertainer’s dream date goes awry

2002: Bud Light, Romantic evening goes awry with satin sheets

2003: Budweiser, Football-playing Clydesdales turn to zebra referee to review call on replay

2004: Bud Light, Owners demonstrate how their dogs fetch Bud Light (SB XXXVIII)

2006: Bud Light, A secret fridge stocks Bud Light

2007: Budweiser, Crabs worship Bud ice chest

2008: Budweiser, Dalmatian trains Clydesdale to make beer wagon team

2009: Doritos, Crystal ball sees free Doritos

2010: Snickers, Betty White, Abe Vigoda play in a casual football game

2011: Bud Light, Dog sitter puts dogs to work and Doritos, Dog’s revenge for Doritos teasing (tie)

2012: Doritos, Dog bribes cat owner

2013: Budweiser, Horse and trainer reunited

2014: Budweiser, Puppy Love

2015: Budweiser, Lost Dog (SB

2016: Hyundai, First Date (SB L)

2017: Kia, Hero’s Journey (SB LI)

2018: Amazon, Alexa Loses Her Voice (SB LII)

2019: NFL, The 100-Year Game

2020: Jeep, Groundhog Day – Bill Murray

2021: Rocket Mortgage: Certain Is Better – Tracy Morgan

2022: Rocket Mortgage: Anna Kendrick and Barbie Dream House SB LVI

Finally, I have viewed, rated, and commented on all the commercials listed on the USA Today Super Bowl LVII Ad-Meter, and every other spot I could confirm will run during the game. Although this column isn’t posted until after the game, I rated the commercial more than 24 hours ahead of it.

I rated 35 spots and saw teasers for two more.

I predict the top spots will come from:

  • M&M
  • Planters
  • Uber One
  • Michelob Ultra – (the Club New Members Day one)

Also doing well – and could be the winner

  • Pringles
  • Farmers Dog
  • Dorritos – Jack’s New Angle
  • Pepsi Zero

Ad-Meter 2023 – My ratings (predictions) before game time.

  1. Door Dash – We Get Groceries. 6.5. Meh,
  2. The Farmers Dog. 7.5. Dogs and kids, cute, awww
  3. Paramount – A Mountain of Entertainment, The Stallone face: 8. I liked, Philly will like, but I doubt the country will score as high
  4. Crown Royal – Thank You Canada – Dave Grohl: 5. Dave Grohl isn’t Canadian, and why are we thanking Canada during the Super Bowl anyways?
  5. Pepsi Zero – Great Acting or great Taste – Steve Martin: 6.5. Just not enough payoff
  6. Pepsi Zero – Great Acting or Great Taste – Ben Stiller + Rachel Dratch: 6.5. Again, not enough payoff
  7. E-Trade – Baby Commercial – Wedding: 4.5. Cute but they’ve done this too many times. They need to come up with something new.
  8. Downy – Downy Anstopables – Call me Downy McBride: 6. Kinda dumb but not awful. This is the kind of spot that tests on ad-meter.
  9. Kia – Kia Telluride X-Pro All-Terrain AWD SUV – Binky Dad: 6.5. Binky Dad, seriously? Minus one point for a crying baby SFX (not going to go well during SB parties). Plus, ½ point for the Rocky theme.
  10. WeatherTech – We All Win: 6.5. I love the, “made in the USA message,” which will test well to the NFL’s core audience but the production values don’t stand out.
  11. Squarespace – The Singularity – Adam Driver: 3.5. It looked more like it was from the Matrix to me. I guess they couldn’t get Keanu Reeves.
  12. T-Mobile Home Internet – New Year. New Neighbor – John Travolta: 4. Disclosure: I HATE T-Mobile’s campaign with the two guys who are ostensibly neighbors – it’s inauthentic. I have no idea why T-Mobile thought to reprise Grease in 2023. Is this the kick-off of the 45th anniversary of the movie’s release? Seeing “Danny” with a beard and a shaved head doesn’t work and with “Sandy’s” (Olivia Newton-John) passing last year, none of this made any sense to me. The highlight was the shot at Xfinity, when it’s truck drove by at the end, which I might have missed watching during the game.
  13. Busch – The Busch Guide, Cold Survival Skills: 8. There is a jarring cut that, again, I may have missed during the game, but watching online worked for me. I found the joke funny. I’m not sure the overall audience will, especially women. On this one I’m voting what I think, not what I believe the general audience will.
  14. Google Pixel – FixedonPixel – Amy Schumer and others: 6. It’s a 90 second spot that would have been better as a 60, and maybe a 30. The setup is way too long. There’s no way I would have been paying attention by the time the action kicks in. They over thought it.
  15. Skechers – Snoop Dog, Tony Romo, Martha Stewart: 4. Please, make it stop. No more Snoop Dog endorsem*nts. And no more Romo and Martha Stewart, for that matter too. Skechers should be more original.
  16. Workday – Rockstar: 5.5. I was wrong. Somebody is more overexposed than Snoop Dog, Ozzy – although Paul Stanley is the main character in this spot (somehow they couldn’t get Gene Simmons), plus several other B-players. The idea is cute, “quit calling people at work a rock star. But at $7M (average for 30 seconds), Super Bowl newcomer Workday could have done much more effective targeted marketing. They will undoubtedly release a statement about how much talk their spot generated – all of which will fade away in 72 hours).
  17. Pringles – Best of Us: 8. Solid. The ultra-sound picture put me over the top. It will test well.
  18. Uber One – One Hit for Uber One: 8.5. I’m about halfway through, but this is a potential winner.
  19. Rakuten – Not so Clueless: 4. There is a lot of nostalgia in the spots. Alicia Silverstone reprises her role in the 1990s film “Clueless.” Maybe I’m clueless about the movie. Perhaps Gen Z and women will get it.
  20. Michelob Ultra Club – New Members Day – Serena Williams, Brian Cox, Tony Romo: 8.5. This is a strong candidate for the ad-meter winner for 2023. The Caddyshack theme and music give it a nostalgic feel, but it stars contemporary people, although established with upper demo appeal – even if I have to watch Tony Romo with a small role. It is humorous but not a belly laugh.
  21. Dorritos – Jack’s New Angle: 7.5. Dorritos has won (or tied for first) three times since 2009. Last year it was third. Underestimate its efforts at your peril. Just as I thought they missed this year by targeting exclusively younger with Jack Harlow and Missy Elliott came the surprise ending with Sir Elton John. Although I don’t think it’s the winner, it’s a solid effort.
  22. Booking.com – Somewhere, Anywhere with Melissa McCarthy: 6. Well produced. I get the message. I don’t think I’ll remember it later.

Not on the ad-meter list but found on search.

  • Draft-Kings – Kevin Hart, Big Poppy, Ludacris, Tony Hawk, The Undertaker: 5.5. They focused more on how many cameos they could squeeze in. The answer is so many that there was no message. Either do an extended spot or fewer cameos.
  • Remy Martin – Inch by Inch – Serena Williams – spot not available just a six second teaser which looks interesting. Williams second spot of SB LVII.
  • Avocados from Mexico – Anna Faris in the Garden of Eden: 5.5. Meh.
  • M&M’s – Maya Rudolph: 9. It’s a little unfair because Mars Candies has already pumped the prime with a 15-second online teaser which has generated a “controversy.” The follow-up SB spot is a candidate for the highest testing spot of SB LVII.
  • Heineken 0.0 – Ant-man and the Wasp – Now you Can: 4.5. Maybe I’m just not an Antman fan? It’s way too complicated of a premise and production for a 30-second spot.
  • Coors Light – The High Stakes Beer Ad – Anheuser Busch has had exclusive beer advertising rights in the Super Bowl for three decades. Molson Coors is only showing a teaser ad online for its Miller Lite and Coors Lite products. It’s complicating matters by involving Draft Kings in a competition to see which is best. At least thus far, I don’t get it.
  • General Motors and Netflix – Will Ferrell: 3.5. This may test better than I give it, because I hate everything about it. Both companies can afford to run their own ads. I hate what GM has become as well. I’m rating this based on what I feel.
  • Turbo Tax – Don’t do Your Taxes – Safety Dance: 6. Cute. It reminds me of the old spot Bob Michelson syndicated: “Cuz.” The spot could have been a home run if they had cast it better, synchronized the fountains to the music or dancing and, maybe a few tighter shots. How can I see this but people who make TV commercials and then spend $7M for 30 seconds can’t, or am I wrong?
  • Popcorners – Breaking Bad: 6.5. Ten years after “Breaking Bad” went off the air, Pop Corners reunites Bryan Cranstong and Aaron Paul. Nice but is this the best use of marketing dollars for Pop Corners?
  • Fanduel – Kick of Destiny – Gronk: 5.5. Maybe there are 10 people staring in 80% of the commercials starting with Snoop Dog, Tony Romo, and Gronk. Are they really going to have time for Gronk to attempt a field goal in addition to Rihanna?
  • Hellmann’s – Make Taste Not Waste – Jon Hamm, Brie Larson and Pete Davidson: 3.5. Agh. There are two more to add to the list, Hamm and Davidson. And the line “I’m going to eat you two guys.” Does Hellmann’s really belong in the Super Bowl?
  • Planters – Jeff Ross & Mr. Peanut: 7.5. If this had come earlier, I might have rated it lower. After watching spots with the same people, endorsing every product advertised, seeing Jeff Ross and a one-hundred-plus-year company mascot felt strangely refreshing.
  • Bud light – Hold – Miles and Keleigh Teller: 7. Adorable. Women will love it. Feels authentic enough but men will keep it out of the finals.
  • Budweiser – Six Degrees of Separation: 5.5. A huge disappointment for a Budweiser Super Bowl spot. I gave it an extra half point just because it is an A-B spot.
  • Warner Brothers – The Flash: 5.0. Movie spots typically haven’t fared well in the Super Bowl. Neither will this one.

Let’s see if I predicted how the public rated them.

Can You Predict Which Super Bowl Commercial Will Be Most Popular? | Barrett Media (2024)

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